Drone Wars: Exploring Africa’s Burgeoning Drone Market

Drone warfare has historically been the domain of the world's largest militaries – the United States, Russia, and China. However, increasing affordability and accessibility have democratized drone use, making the technology attractive to a wide range of actors. African nations are rapidly catching up by adopting drones for their military strategies. This rapidly changing technological landscape has implications for policy makers.

Today, nearly every African country has acquired drones for civilian or military purposes. Most recently, the Democratic Republic of Congo joined the fray, purchasing drones from China to gain an advantage over the M23 rebel group. China has a 20-year head start on making cheap drones; more than 90% of all drones are manufactured in China. Their ability to capitalize on the African market compared to the United States continues to extend their lead in the dual-use drone market. By contrast, the U.S. is working on a replicator initiative to try to get the military drone production higher, but the initiative doesn’t include pathways for the U.S. industrial base to sell cheap, mass-produced consumer drones.

China has a 20-year head start on making cheap drones; more than 90% of all drones are manufactured in China.

The sale of drones has forged new relationships between African states and foreign powers such as China keen on deepening their economic and political ties in the region. Other players, like Turkey, view drones as pivotal to their long-term political ambitions in Africa. Turkey sold approximately 40 large Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to 10 countries, including Botswana, Sudan, and Zambia. Turkey's success in the Libyan civil war showcased drones' efficacy, convincing lower-income nations of their value in combat. The influx of drones from countries like China, Iran, Israel, and Turkey has led to a chaotic proliferation of technology in the region. Just think of the dizzying number of user manuals that operators have to read!

So why are drones so desired by terrorist groups and nation states alike? The primary answer is simply cost effectiveness. The cost of large, sophisticated drones are about 20 times less than that of fighter aircraft, enabling states to add capability to their military arsenals affordably. This price-to-value calculation makes the math easy for political leaders. Drones now offer both superior air control and intelligence-gathering capabilities, making them indispensable tools of modern warfare.

The most alarming development is the increasing acquisition of drones by extremist and terrorist groups. The Nigerian army uses Orion drones from Elistair to monitor borders and identify threats, particularly from extremists. Yet, on the other side, jihadist groups like Boko Haram have more sophisticated drones than the Nigerian government, which they use for reconnaissance and attacks. This suggests an impending arms race, as Nigeria lacks a framework to counter drone threats from such groups. In fact, these armed factions often seem better equipped to handle drone mitigation than the Nigerian military itself.

Extremist groups can acquire lethal drones, easily. Civilian-grade drones, predominantly manufactured and sold in Africa by China, are readily available. And through social media, pan-Islamist militant organizations like al-Qaeda are able to share their knowledge of how to upgrade and modify civilian-grade drones. These vast sharing networks have helped turn less sophisticated drones into intelligence machines and, with minimal modification, into lethal weapons.

Civilians could bear the brunt of the consequences of the proliferation of lethal drones in Africa. Africa's nascent drone landscape suffers from a lack of transparency and regulation, creating a breeding ground for misuse and exploitation. The statistics are grim. Civilian deaths from drone strikes in Africa soared from 149 in 2020 to 1,418 in 2023. This 850% increase illustrates the growing danger and the need for new defenses. The attacks can be accidental due to poor training and a lack of knowledge of these new systems. In 2023, the Nigerian military admitted to accidentally targeting a village, resulting in 85 civilian deaths during a festival. Additionally, the weaponization of drones by extremist groups risks additional civilian casualties and escalating conflicts due to poor training and communication.

While on the surface it seems like these new weapons have negative consequences for civilians, more data is needed to determine if drones are counter-intuitively making the battlefield safer or having no measurable effect on battlefield safety. Does the proliferation of drones (and their countermeasures) mean that militant groups are using fewer imprecise legacy weapons — like unguided rockets or artillery, where the blast-radius can hit civilians accidentally? What is clear is that our adversaries are quickly moving in to establish an advantage in the region by selling these arms, regardless of the moral implications.

What is clear is that our adversaries are quickly moving in to establish an advantage in the region by selling these arms, regardless of the moral implications.

Drone technology is an increasingly attractive tool for leaders in African conflicts — providing unparalleled capabilities for the price. The drone arms race is just beginning, with more governments and extremist groups vying for these powerful tools and world powers like China readily providing them.